Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-27 2.334082 2.483090 2.641071 2.821781 3.023697 3.243453 3.502203
2025-08-03 2.105845 2.307947 2.533255 2.805632 3.129578 3.507278 3.988277
2025-08-10 1.957124 2.187208 2.452446 2.785587 3.199982 3.708792 4.398266
2025-08-17 1.836459 2.082300 2.372924 2.748864 3.233448 3.854257 4.741465
2025-08-24 1.738697 1.994619 2.303425 2.712785 3.256675 3.979864 5.064563
2025-08-31 1.672409 1.939308 2.267544 2.712836 3.322009 4.162391 5.486943
2025-09-07 1.621684 1.899131 2.246395 2.727852 3.405228 4.374215 5.980760
2025-09-14 1.553916 1.832960 2.186780 2.685361 3.401947 4.456358 6.277110
2025-09-21 1.491457 1.770243 2.127718 2.638652 3.387002 4.516573 6.542203
2025-09-28 1.433879 1.711117 2.070105 2.589669 3.363616 4.559189 6.780045
2025-10-05 1.415280 1.702172 2.078990 2.634500 3.483117 4.841118 7.507406
2025-10-12 1.397735 1.693475 2.087183 2.677940 3.602871 5.136142 8.325175
2025-10-19 1.381234 1.686068 2.097531 2.726368 3.736858 5.477294 9.341315
2025-10-26 1.345500 1.650885 2.067025 2.711179 3.765457 5.632186 9.984916
2025-11-02 1.311161 1.616227 2.035535 2.692228 3.785486 5.772446 10.633037
2025-11-09 1.274401 1.576849 1.995497 2.657494 3.775299 5.852217 11.149806
2025-11-16 1.240074 1.539728 1.957226 2.623353 3.763228 5.926306 11.675294
2025-11-23 1.217485 1.518382 1.941113 2.623401 3.811299 6.129119 12.644913
2025-11-30 1.200097 1.503766 1.934203 2.637612 3.885639 6.397488 13.934635
2025-12-07 1.169052 1.468624 1.895320 2.597391 3.856170 6.434380 14.471458
2025-12-14 1.138464 1.433342 1.855104 2.553152 3.816160 6.443077 14.918094
2025-12-21 1.108712 1.398544 1.814594 2.506730 3.769084 6.430631 15.288943
2025-12-28 1.103026 1.398490 1.826769 2.549219 3.895938 6.844974 17.588161